11.18.22 at 11:59 am

Here’s Why Twitter Probably Won’t Make It Past the 2022 World Cup

11.18.22 at 11:59 am

Lead Photo: This illustration photo taken May 13, 2022, displays Elon Musks Twitter account with a Twitter logo in the background in Los Angeles. - Elon Musk sent mixed messages Friday about his proposed Twitter acquisition, pressuring shares of the microblogging platform amid skepticism on whether the deal will close. In an early morning tweet, Musk said the $44 billion takeover was "temporarily on hold," pending questions over the social media company's estimates of the number of fake accounts or "bots." That sent Twitter's stock plunging 25 percent. (Photo by Chris DELMAS / AFP) (Photo by CHRIS DELMAS/AFP via Getty Images)

This illustration photo taken May 13, 2022, displays Elon Musks Twitter account with a Twitter logo in the background in Los Angeles. - Elon Musk sent mixed messages Friday about his proposed Twitter acquisition, pressuring shares of the microblogging platform amid skepticism on whether the deal will close. In an early morning tweet, Musk said the $44 billion takeover was "temporarily on hold," pending questions over the social media company's estimates of the number of fake accounts or "bots." That sent Twitter's stock plunging 25 percent. (Photo by Chris DELMAS / AFP) (Photo by CHRIS DELMAS/AFP via Getty Images)

The World Cup is a global phenomenon that might take down Twitter in 2022.

A lot is riding on the 64 game-tournament, for teams and fans alike. Messi is looking for his first World Cup at 35. Neymar is looking to prove he can also carry Brazil to the promised land. Mexico is aiming for that elusive fifth game and a better showing than they’ve ever achieved. But now it seems like the World Cup might even be the thing that brings about the end of Twitter, something that wasn’t really on anyone’s bingo card.

It sounds like an exaggeration, but it isn’t. Elon Musk’s recent purchase of the social media platform, and his subsequent changes to it, have triggered a chain reaction that has seen its workforce shrink to about 10% of what it once was, according to estimates. A great number of people were fired. Others resigned as they were unwilling to be part of what Musk called a more “hardcore” Twitter 2.0 where long hours would be expected and in-office presence was mandatory.

The result left a lot of people worried about the short-term future of the platform.

!!! “I know of six critical systems (like ‘serving tweets’ levels of critical) which no longer have any engineers," "There is no longer even a skeleton crew manning the system. It will continue to coast until it runs into something, and then it will stop.”https://t.co/5lmWQHX2ft

— Nitasha Tiku (@nitashatiku) November 18, 2022

But the 2022 World Cup could exacerbate the problems, and maybe push Twitter to the breaking point sooner, rather than later. And it’s not something that’s coming out of nowhere. Knowledgeable people have been raising the alarm about this since Musk bought the company.

I’m thinking about the many, many amazing talks and case studies Twitter engineering published over the last decade about how insane was it to keep the site up during World Cups.

Well, guess what starts in about a week?

— ✨ Phil Calçado (@pcalcado) November 12, 2022

The reason is simple, the World Cup is a global event.

Past World Cups have almost pushed Twitter to the breaking point, with unprecedented levels of engagement. The inaugural game is Sunday, November 20th. Argentina, one of the favorites and the team of global superstar Lionel Messi, plays Tuesday, November 22nd. Brazil, another favorite, debuts on Thursday, November 24th. And one of the most awaited games for our communities, Mexico-Argentina, will take place on Saturday, November 26th.

Can Twitter withstand the 2022 World Cup surge of fans cheering on for their faves, news sites sharing updates, and others posting their favorite highlights? And, if they can’t, who is going to come in and do the actual work to fix the overwhelmed systems when all the experts that know the inner mechanics of Twitter are fired or have resigned?

No one. That’s who.

Need some scenarios to help you understand? Read the full thread below while you still can.

24) World Cup. It is *the* defining event. We used to have watch parties for the traffic charts. The amount of traffic your site gets in one week is mind-blowing. It's in huge bursts. It tests *every* system you have to its limits. If one breaks, hope it doesn't cascade. It will.

— Mosquito Capital (@MosquitoCapital) November 18, 2022

The Qatar FIFA 2022 World Cup is set to begin Sunday, November 20, when Qatar faces Ecuador at 11:00ET.

2022 World Cup Culture elon musk Qatar sports twitter